【中英文】全球债务是定时炸弹 黄金将再次成为货币

来源:人民币交易与研究

欧洲太平洋资本首席全球策略师彼得•希夫近日撰文称,美联储的“印钞计划”将继续扩大债务泡沫,最终将使美元消亡。他认为,美元还有很多潜在的疲软之处尚未显现,而黄金将再次成为货币。

 

图片 | Pixabay

彼得·希夫(Peter Schiff)表示,美联储已经启动了一项新的印钞计划,该计划将继续扩大债务泡沫,支撑全球市场。这种情况上月突然出现在所谓的“回购市场”,即美联储为短期融资或隔夜融资的交易商提供流动性。

Peter Schiff says the Federal Reserve has already started a new money printing program that continues to expand the debt bubble and keep global markets propped up. This started abruptly last month in what is called the “repo market,” where the Fed provides liquidity for traders of short-term money or overnight funding.

希夫说:“当美联储推出第三轮量化宽松政策时,他们每月购买850亿美元的债务。他们(美联储)仅仅在三周内就投入了1,760亿美元,还称其没有实施量化宽松……”

Schiff says, “When the Fed was doing QE3, they were buying $85 billion worth of debt per month. They (Fed) just did $176 billion in three weeks, and they say they are not doing QE..."

“如此一来,相比于实施量化宽松政策的时候,美联储正将更多的债务货币化,这意味着他们事实上正在实施量化宽松,而且他们将不得不采取更多措施。”他们这样做的原因是,市场最终试图提高利率,因为美联储一直在压制利率。它们是被人为压低的,这些年来,这些人为压低的利率对经济造成了巨大损害。现在,利率正在上升,美联储正试图阻止这种情况的发生。他们不应该这样做,但这是他们必须做的,以防止泡沫破裂。这就是为什么他们必须回到量化宽松。如果他们不这样做,利率就会高得多,股市就会低得多,房地产价格就会下跌,我们就会走向另一场金融危机。”

"So, the Fed is monetizing more debt not doing QE than when they were doing QE, which means they are doing it and they are going to have to do more of it. The reason they are doing it is because the markets are finally trying to move interest rates higher because the Fed has been suppressing them.  They are artificially low, and these artificially low interest rates have done tremendous damage to the economy over the years. Now, rates are rising, and the Fed is trying to stop this from happening. They shouldn’t do this, but this is what they have to do to keep the bubble from imploding. This is why they have to go back to QE. If they didn’t, rates would be much higher, the stock market would be much lower, real estate prices would be coming down and we would be heading for another financial crisis.”

这一切的最终目标是什么?希夫认为,“我们的领导人唯一的目标就是推迟痛苦,这样他们就能再次当选。” 他说,“就是这样。看,这是一个巨大的定时炸弹;我们只要确保保险丝长一些就行了。马上就要举行选举了,美联储主席只是想确保他们能让一切维持足够长的时间,直到他们辞职,让其他人成为替罪羊。没有人关心经济的长期健康发展,其计划是推迟不可避免的事情,假装一切都很好。就债务而言,债务是永远不会被偿还的。我们无法偿还,事实上,甚至没有人相信我们会偿还。”

What is the end goal in all of this? Schiff contends, “The only goal our leaders have is to postpone the pain so they can get re-elected." He said,"That’s the whole idea. Look, this is a gigantic time bomb; we just have to make sure that the fuse is longer. We have an election coming up, and the Fed Chair just wants to make sure they can keep everything going long enough to resign and have somebody else be the fall guy. Nobody cares about the long term health of the economy, and the plan is to delay the inevitable and pretend everything is good. . . . As far as the debt is concerned, the debt is never going to be repaid. We can’t repay it, and, in fact, nobody even believes we are going to repay it.”

那么,各国央行下一步将采取什么行动?希夫说:“采取印钞路线在政治上更有利,特别是因为没有人相信他们会摧毁这种货币。”

So, what is the next move by central bankers? Schiff says, “It’s more politically expedient to take the printing route, especially because nobody believes they are going to destroy the currency."

“他们认为,他们可以印足够多的钱来降低债务的价值,使一切都消失。这根本就是不可能的。所以,一旦他们开始用这种方式把债务货币化,就完了。美元将被扼杀。这就是我们前进的方向。这也是唯一还没有发生的事情。但黄金已经出现。金价超过了每盎司1500美元,而且以大多数货币计算,金价都创下了历史新高。但以美元计算还没有。美元兑其它法定货币仍相对强劲,但美元兑黄金如此疲软的事实表明,美元还有很多潜在的疲软尚未显现……但这终究是会发生的。当美元开始下跌时,债券市场也会随之下跌。当美元消亡时,长期利率最终将上升。”

"They think they are going to print enough money to reduce the value of the debt enough to make everything go away. It’s impossible at all. So, once they start monetizing debt in that way, then that’s it. The dollar is going to get killed. That’s where we are headed. That’s the only thing that hasn’t happened yet. Gold has broken out. Gold is over $1,500 per ounce, and it is hitting record highs in most currencies. Not in the dollar, yet. The dollar is still relatively strong against other fiat currencies, but the fact it is this weak against gold shows you there is a lot of underlying weakness in the dollar that has yet to manifest . . . but that is going to happen. When the dollar starts to fall, that’s going to take the bond market down with it. Long term interest rates are ultimately going to rise when the dollar tanks.”

希夫还表示:“我认为,黄金相对于其应有的价值被低估了,因为太多人对央行和法定货币抱有太多信心。”

Schiff also says, “I think gold is undervalued relative to where it should be because so many people have too much confidence in central banks and fiat money."

“他们没有意识到他们需要拥有黄金。我认为他们很快就会顿悟,当他们顿悟的时候,黄金的价格就会暴涨。黄金将再次成为货币。在我看来,这是毫无疑问的。”

"They don’t realize they need to own gold. I think they are going to come to that epiphany soon, and when they do, the price of gold is going to explode. Gold is going to be money again. There is no question in my mind that is going to happen.”

希夫预测,特朗普总统不会连任,不是因为弹劾,而是因为经济衰退。希夫说:“贸易赤字比以往任何时候都大。比奥巴马执政时更大。”

Schiff predicts President Trump will not get re-elected but not because of impeachment, but the failing economy. Schiff says, “The trade deficits are bigger than they have ever been. They are bigger than they were under Obama."

他说:“制造业已经处于衰退之中,到选举的时候,衰退将更加严重。这是自2009年以来最糟糕的数据。2016年投票给特朗普的大多数蓝领选民在2020年的日子会更难过。他们会有更多的债务,即使他们有工作,他们的实际工资也会更低。”

"Manufacturing is already in recession, and it will be deeper in recession by the time the election comes. The numbers are the worst they have been since 2009. Most blue collar voters who voted for Trump in 2016 will be worse off in 2020. They will have more debt, and they will have lower real wages if they even have jobs.”(完)

 

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