石油需求复苏之路还很漫长

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价6月28日报道,最近几周,美国的燃料需求一直在逐渐增加,收复了前几周停工期间的损失。汽油需求自4月初以来一直在上升,人们出行变多起来。然而,馏分油和航空燃料的需求仍在苦苦挣扎,尤其是航空燃料。

汽油产量自4月低点以来也有所上升,但增长速度远慢于消费复苏步伐,这表明炼油厂仍需首先出售相当数量的燃料库存,才能将原油加工速度和产能利用率提高到危机前的水平。

路透社市场分析师约翰坎普(John Kemp)表示,美国各地的炼油商并不急于迅速提高加工速度,而是让市场首先消化过剩供应。

根据美国能源信息署最新的每周库存报告显示,炼油厂原油投入和产能利用率的增速一直低于汽油隐含消费量的增速。

EIA报告称,截至6月19日当周汽油库存减少170万桶,与前一周降幅相同。上周汽油平均日产量为880万桶,高于一周前的840万桶。馏分燃料方需求的复苏速度慢于汽油,截至6月19日当周的库存增加了24.9万桶。上周馏分油平均日产量为460万桶,一周前为450万桶。

炼油厂平均日产量为1384万桶,高于一周前的1360万桶。与去年同期相比,炼油厂原油投入下降了20.2%。上周汽油日产量为880万桶,较去年同期的1051.2万桶下降16.3%。航空燃油的产量仍然严重低迷,为69.4万桶/天,比去年同期的190万桶/天下降了63.6%。

截至6月19日当周,汽油需求为860万桶/天,高于前一周的787万桶/天,但仍远低于2019年同一周的946.6万桶/天的需求。汽油需求正在回升,但要达到 “正常”水平还有很长的路要走。炼油产能利用率的上升速度要慢得多,因为炼油商和市场必须消化在关闭之初飙升的过剩燃料库存。

美国炼油厂产能利用率在过去几周缓慢攀升,6月19日当周每周上升不到1个百分点,不过已从4月第三周的低点67.6%升至74.6%。相比之下,去年6月第三周,炼油厂利用率为94.2%。因为需求随着出行季节的开始而飙升,在夏季,美国的产能利用率通常在95%左右。

如果炼油商继续以远低于正常水平的利用率运营,将有助于更快地消化过剩的燃料库存。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下:

The Long Road To Oil Demand Recovery

Fuel demand in the United States has been gradually increasing in recent weeks, clawing back over half of the consumption lost during the first couple of weeks of lockdowns. Gasoline demand has been rising since early April as lockdowns eased and people started driving more. Distillate fuel and jet fuel demand, however, is still struggling--especially jet fuel.

Gasoline production has also risen since April lows, but growth has been much slower than the pace of consumption recovery, suggesting that there are still sizeable fuel stocks that refiners need to sell first before ramping up crude processing rates and capacity utilization to pre-crisis levels.

Refiners across the U.S. are not rushing to quickly increase processing rates, leaving the market to first draw down the fuel oversupply, Reuters market analyst John Kemp says.

According to the latest weekly inventory report of the Energy Information Administration, refinery crude oil inputs and capacity utilization have been rising at a slower pace than the implied gasoline consumption.

The EIA reported an inventory draw of 1.7 million barrels of gasoline for the week to June 19, compared with a decline of the same size for the previous week. Gasoline production last week averaged 8.8 million bpd, up from 8.4 million barrels daily a week earlier.

In distillate fuels, where demand has been slower to recover than in gasoline, the EIA reported an inventory rise of 249,000 barrels for the week to June 19. Production of distillates averaged 4.6 million bpd last week, compared with 4.5 million bpd a week earlier.

Refinery runs averaged 13.84 million bpd, up from 13.6 million bpd a week earlier. Compared to the same week a year ago, refinery crude oil inputs were down 20.2 percent. Production of motor gasoline at 8.8 million bpd was still 16.3 percent lower than in the same week last year when gasoline production was 10.512 million bpd.

Jet fuel is still profoundly depressed, with production at 694,000 bpd, down by 63.6 percent from the 1.9 million bpd of jet fuel produced in the same week last year.

Gasoline demand stood at 8.6 million bpd in the week to June 19, up from 7.87 million bpd from the prior week, but still well below the 9.466 million bpd demand in the same week in 2019.

Gasoline demand is returning, but it still has a long way to go to reach its ‘normal’ levels for this time of the year.

Refinery capacity utilization is rising much slower as refiners and the market have to draw down excess fuel inventories that surged at the start of the lockdowns.

U.S. refinery capacity utilization has been slowly creeping up over the past weeks, by less than 1 percentage point each week, to reach 74.6 percent in the week to June 19, from a low of 67.6 percent in the third week of April. To compare, in the third week of June last year, refinery utilization was 94.2 percent as demand was soaring with the start of driving season. Typically, U.S. capacity utilization is around 95 percent in the summer season.

If refiners continue operating at much lower-than-normal utilization rates, they could help draw down the excess fuel stocks faster.

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